Britain nearing ‘crunch point’ in secure energy generation

Britain is approaching an energy security “crunch point” as a consequence of delays building new power plants running up against growing demand.

The overrun in completing the construction of Hinkley Point C, the only new nuclear capacity being built in the UK, and decommissioning of existing nuclear power stations will contribute to the shortfall in secure energy generation over the next five years, research commissioned by Drax Group has found.

The imbalance will reach its most severe point in 2028 when demand will exceed secure capacity, which excludes intermittent forms of generation such as wind and solar, by 7.5 gigawatts (GW) at peak times, according to the study conducted by Public First. After including sporadic types of energy generation, supply would be 5GW higher than demand in 2028.

The 5GW buffer is enough to power 4.4 million homes but represents a 40 per cent reduction from the average headroom that had been anticipated between this year and 2027.

Drax is awaiting confirmation from the government on the so-called bridging mechanism, to keep the biomass-fuelled Drax power station in North Yorkshire running without subsidies between 2027 and 2030.

Gas remains the single largest contributor to the UK’s energy capacity but just under half of the country’s total power mix is made up of intermittent forms of supply as more renewables have come on to the grid.

The UK has set a target of decarbonising the electricity grid by 2035, including by increasing nuclear energy generation. However, four out of the country’s five nuclear power stations are due to be decommissioned by 2028, and Hinkley Point C may not be completed until 2031.

Daisy Powell-Chandler, head of energy and environment at Public First, said: “Setbacks in bringing new nuclear and offshore wind online, the retirement of generation assets and increasing power demand will create an energy crunch point in 2028.

“But the challenge of keeping the lights on is not set in stone: policymakers have a suite of levers they can pull to ensure that we have a more secure, diverse and sustainable energy system in the future.”